The slow-witted comrade has stepped into Putin's trap

The strategic plan of the Russian special services - to back the dictator of Belarus into such a deep corner that there is only one way out of it: to become completely dependent on the favor of the Kremlin - has been successfully implemented. It doesn't even matter if this plan was carefully designed or just turned out that way.

All indications are that the operation to detain journalist Raman Pratasevich by landing the passenger plane in Minsk with the help of jet fighters, did not take place without the involvement of Russian special services. Most likely, it was the Russian services that calculated the journalist's location and the flight on which he flew to Vilnius. Four Russian citizens did not continue their flight after landing in Minsk, and there are reasonable suspicions that three of them were from special forces. Ryanair's crew also say there were special forces personnel on the plane.

This shows that the short-sighted sovkhoz director swallowed the bait from Russia without a second thought, without even thinking about the hook hidden in it. In the West, after this spectacle, his image is so damaged that he is put in the same column as bin Laden and Hussein. Consequently, the Lukashenko regime is now entirely dependent on Putin's favor. If the Kremlin owner does not like something and makes it known that he would like to see someone else standing in the place of the Minsk butcher, then among the gang members in Minsk there will be someone who will be ready to do the will of the highest leader and sit in the throne of the toppled dictator.

There are strong doubts about the mental health of the dictator

Latvian Radio journalist Aidis Thomsons asked this question in portal Delfi - Was Lukashenko really unaware of the consequences of his actions [when he hijacked the plane], and answered, "I think he was well aware of the price of such a risk." This time, I will dare to disagree with my colleague, because the behavior of the Belarusian dictator since the presidential election, which was lost on 9 August last year, indicates being mentally unbalanced. The fact that he has so far managed to stay in power with a disproportionate intensity of repressions does not alter the fact that sooner or later these actions should have had serious consequences. Just like a drunk person can drive a car and even perform difficult maneuvers at times, but at some point, such driving will end with a predictable outcome.

I am not saying that this idiotic (because the benefits are not commensurate with the potential losses) Lukashenko's air piracy campaign will be the straw that will break the camel's back. Probably not, but it will certainly be a decent splash of vinegar in the somewhat acceptable pot of honey that Lukashenko has tried to offer the West so far. Beneficial economic cooperation and a buffer zone between Europe and Putin's Russia.

There is no honor in having a good relationship with a bandit

With this unprecedented action (in the often-mentioned case of Morales, no jet fighters were used and it was not a regular passenger plane), Lukashenko has severely ruined the song of all his defenders in Europe. Right now, saying something good about him is about the same as defending Trump. That is why the Mayor of Riga Mārtiņš Staķis and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Edgars Rinkēvičs allowed themselves such an undiplomatic gesture as to change the Belarusian flag in front of the hotel where the participants of the hockey championship were staying. These politicians were not afraid of receiving any angry looks from other countries or from the locals. On the contrary, against the background of Lukashenko's [justified] demonization, their move even looked very effective and gained widespread support around the world (with the exception of Russia and the Minsk presidential palace).

I don't want to comment on the consequences of this flag change for the Latvian economy, because, on the one hand, these consequences will certainly be negative, but, on the other hand, there is no honor in maintaining even a seemingly good relationship with a bandit. Unfortunately, the Belarusian dictator cannot be called anything else after everything he has done.

Returning to the risks, Lukashenko probably did not expect such a sharp reaction from the world. Presumably, he miscalculated, and there were two main reasons for this mistake. First, he did not think that what he was going to do was something so special that the world would be much more disturbed than about what he had done before. It is possible that he was also given the idea of ​​the "Morales case", which he found a convincing justification for his actions. However, the main idea was something like this: if Europe was fine with mass arrests, thousands of people in prison, the murder of opponents, the destruction of the biggest informative news channel tut.by, the absolute clearing of the political and information space, then why should there be a different reaction if they were to land an airplane in their airspace and remove one rioter (in their opinion)?

But the main mistake was that Lukashenko apparently imagined himself to be equal to Putin. Meaning, if Putin had already committed much more serious crimes without significant international consequences (the annexation of Crimea, the outbreak of war in Eastern Ukraine, the destruction of Malaysia's Boeing, the killing of Boris Nemtsov, the use of chemical warfare at home and abroad, the rewriting of the constitution in Central Asian style and many other things), why should the world treat me differently?

The end result is that now, before Putin and Lukashenko's next meeting in Sochi on May 28, the mustached comrade has backed not only himself but also the country's economy into a corner. EU aid of 3 billion euros has been frozen, the national airline Belavia is close to bankruptcy and further economic sanctions are expected. Lukashenko himself has become extremely toxic, but unlike Putin, he has almost nothing to offer Europe. One may ask, what will happen now and in what way is it in line with Russia's strategic plan?

There is no reason to think that the dream of Anschluss has been killed

Putinologists all emphasize that Putin is an excellent tactician, but he is definitely not a strategist. He performs all actions situationally. If there is a possibility, such as a power vacuum in Ukraine, then he uses it and seizes Crimea. Tried the same with eight more districts, but when this failed, he had to stop at the so-called DNR and LNR bandit enclaves. However, this theory seems only partially true.

Putin may not really have a well-developed action plan until 2036 and beyond, but he does have a strategic idea. It is quite simple, and he formulated it in a message to the Federal Assembly in 2005, saying that the collapse of the USSR was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. He did not say that his goal was to avert the consequences of this catastrophe and to rebuild the USSR as much as possible, but there is no doubt that the idea had taken roots deep in his head.

Based on this and the obsessive idea that the three ethnic groups - Russians, Belarusians and Ukrainians - are in fact one nation, it is easy to guess that the reunification of Russia and Belarus has never disappeared from the Kremlin agenda. It is also not particularly hidden. Even more. The Union State of Russia and Belarus already formally exists, and all that remains is to breathe life into this still-lifeless structure. Then the ball will get rolling. Another issue is that it's not so easy to breathe life into this superficially glued homunculus, but I don't think Putin is interested in such "details". The main thing is to design this "Anschluss" in such a way that both he would like it and it can be presented to the grateful nation as a nice gift.

But the Kremlin will think about that later. For the time being, the tactical task has been fulfilled - Lukashenko has been forced to his knees in accordance with all Russian prisoners' traditions, and at the upcoming meeting he will be sitting on the edge of the chair again, just like last autumn, when his power was precarious. Now it hangs by a fine thread again, and his fate depends solely on the will of his "older brother". Which was precisely what Bortnikov & Co had to achieve.

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