Don't be surprised if your bus doesn't arrive on August 1
The words "Liepāja", "Kuldīga, Saldus", "Pierīga", "Bauska" and "Daugavpils, Krāslava" ask for caution for all who use public transport to or from these cities: on August 1 this year, a new procedure for bus travel will come into force, which means reducing the number of state-subsidized routes and partially replacing them with purely commercial transport, the arrival time of which is not really clear.
Today, buses run as they did, despite the scandals that have for some years surrounded the state-subsidized transport tenders for the next ten years. Due to these scandals, the new order, contrary to the plan, has not yet entered into force anywhere, but in the territories with the designations “Talsi, Tukums”, “Jelgava, Dobele”, “Valmiera, Valka, Smiltene”, “Gulbene, Alūksne, Balvi”, “Madona”, “Rēzekne, Ludza” and “Ventspils” have been moved to an unknown time in the future. In the middle are the territories “Cēsis”, “Limbaži, Sigulda”, “Ogre, Aizkraukle” and “Jēkabpils, Preiļi, Līvāni”, where the new procedure should enter into force on July 1 next year. The advantage for the inhabitants of these areas is that they will at least know what to expect if they have to change from subsidized buses to non-subsidized buses: will they run at all, in what technical condition will the buses be, what network of stops will be considered most advantageous by the carriers, who will need to count every cent, and in the end, how much will a non-subsidized ticket cost.
If the government won't get scared, won't argue and will issue regulations on regular commercial bus transportation by the end of this month, then passengers on bus routes Riga-Ogre, Riga-Salaspils, Riga-Jelgava, Riga-Olaine, Riga-Jaunķemeri, Riga-Sloka, Riga-Sigulda and Riga-Daugavpils will be the first guinea pigs. In the future, state grants will be taken away from drivers to Rēzekne, Liepāja, Ventspils and Bauska.
A special shock has been prepared for those who buy subsidized tickets with state-granted discounts, but along with the subsidies, they will also lose the discounts.
Since the restoration of the Republic of Latvia, we have lived in the firm belief that the population of the country is too small, and their wealth is too low for buses to drive without subsidies.
The subsidies turned out to be a fee for even the right to drive private cars, that we won on barricades, i.e., to import into Latvia an unlimited number of cheap used cars from countries where, unlike the Soviet Union, there was an overproduction of cars. If someone rides a bus, it automatically counts as a state-supported poor person who cannot buy even a used car.
The amount of government subsidies has changed at different rates in different years, but in a consistent upward direction. In addition, every 10 years it had to overcome barriers of promises to relieve the Treasury from such expenditures, if not completely, then significantly. In reality, commitments have only grown and are now moving from a record last year to a new record this year. This is, of course, due to the travel restrictions imposed by the government, which reduce the number of bus passengers, i.e., carriers' ticket revenues. The state has compensated for this lost revenue and is likely to compensate this year as well.
Even before Covid-19, the previous decade of transport contracts came to an end and a call for tenders for the next decade was launched. It was supposed to start in 2020, but nothing will actually start until August 1 this year. Perhaps the change will be postponed beyond August 1, but perhaps it will actually start, at least to see what it really means for passengers and carriers. The purpose of the changes is to reduce bus transport as much as possible by offering train transport by the state-owned Pasažieru vilciens instead. It has committed, at least at the level of signed contracts, to increase and update its fleet from next year, but it is estimated that it will be able to provide at least some intensification of transport with the old resources. They were put on hold until the start of new bus services so that the state would not have to pay twice for both public buses and trains, as in both cases transport without subsidies seemed impossible.
With the termination of the old contracts and the entry into force of the new contracts, the volume of road transport will be gradually reduced by 15-30% in various territories of the country, in which the country is divided for the needs of the transport tender. This is another variation on the average temperature in hospitals, as passengers are not interested in the overall reduction in the number of routes, even where they are commuting. They are interested in whether and how many times a day buses will continue to stop at the stops they need. Residents of the territories marked with the words “Liepāja”, “Kuldīga, Saldus”, “Pierīga”, “Bauska” and “Daugavpils, Krāslava” should now be very interested in it, so that they do not stand at the stop waiting for a canceled bus trip on August 1 (so that they only would not find out only in August that the routes had been canceled).
In terms of bus kilometers traveled, about 15 million kilometers per year would have to be replaced. The tender has ensured that, at least formally, there will be enough bidders for such services and even more. Namely, the number of state-subsidized carriers has been reduced from 28 to perhaps eight, but the specific number cannot be clearly known, as the tender is still ongoing in seven lots. Ivo Ošenieks, President of the Latvian Association of Passenger Carriers, points out that no carrier rejected by the state has given notice of self-liquidation. Some of them count on the possibility to receive a public commission in one of the seven remaining lots, some - on municipal commissions, some - on regular and non-scheduled trips for private money. However, no one has also stated that and how they will replace routes canceled by the state in the course of changing carriers. Firstly, no government regulations have been adopted for such routes. Secondly, they are not commercially viable, at least as long as the ban on filling more than half of the bus cabin with passengers remains in force.
As a result, buses may or may not run on August 1. It is also possible for those whose interests will be affected in this way to influence these events, if they find out about the forthcoming changes at all and remind through municipalities, parties or the media about their existence in places where trains do not run.