Brussels might have bitten off more than they can chew with Poland

The deterioration of relations between the EU and Poland threatens to have very serious consequences. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has even warned that these consequences could be tragic. His words should be listened to in particular, because the mentality aspect plays a very important role in this matter, and there are no people in Europe who know Poles better than Lithuanians. Together, the two once formed the most powerful country in Europe - the Polish-Lithuanian union.

Brussels has previously accused Poland of reforming the judiciary in 2018 not in line with EU standards on the independence of the judiciary and demanded that its legislation be brought in line with EU requirements. Poland took the matter to the Constitutional Court, which ruled on October 7 this year that select EU rules were in conflict with the Polish constitution. Basically, it was said that Polish law is above EU law.

The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, for her part, stated that such a decision of the Polish Constitutional Court is contrary to the basic principles of the EU. She pointed out that this was the first time in the history of the EU that a court of a member state had declared the EU treaty unconstitutional. We can't leave it like this, warned von der Leyen, giving a clear hint that Poland would have to make concessions. Otherwise, various sanctions could be imposed on Poland, the most important of which is the non-approval of the Recovery Fund program (non-allocation of money).

The situation is complex, and the aforementioned mentality makes it particularly difficult. By that, I mean the special characteristics of the Poles. Poland considers itself one of the oldest and [once] most powerful countries in Europe, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, with the oldest democratic constitution and democratic governance. True, only the Szlachta (nobility) had the right to vote, but even the king was an elected office. This impressive history has left a deep mark on the character of the Polish nation, which can be described in a few words as proud, uncompromising, insistent and in some ways shameless (in both good and bad ways). In other words, Poles will stand up for themselves and will not allow themselves to be maltreated.

Listening to the statements of some EU officials, such as the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, it seems that this feature of the Polish mentality is not taken into account and this situation is only thought of in purely rational categories, where the logic is roughly as follows: 1) Poland receives more from the EU than it gives; 2) polls show that an absolute majority of the Polish population does not want to leave the EU; 3) Based on the previous two points, Poland can easily be forced to comply with EU rules, because what else can it do?

Such a solution to this situation could be if, say, Latvia had rebelled against the EU rules. True, such a "rebellion" would be very difficult to imagine, because the Latvian mentality is fundamentally different from the Polish mentality. There is no doubt that Poland will be stubborn and the harder it is pushed, the more it will resist. The European Parliament, which has an overwhelming majority of left-wing MEPs (who cowardly cover themselves with centrist feathers), has already adopted a resolution condemning Poland.

The accompanying explanation states that “according to different polls conducted in Poland in September 2021 and October 2021, only 5% of respondents said they would like Poland to leave the EU, 90% positively assessed Poland’s membership of the EU, and 95% also said they thought that EU support had a positive impact on the development of their city or region, which is higher than the EU average." This explanation should obviously encourage the Council of Europe and the European Commission to be more decisive in imposing heavy financial penalties on Poland for disobedience.

The idea is simple: Poland is not England. There is less anti-EU sentiment there. Consequently, withdrawal from the EU or the so-called Polexit is not a threat in this case. But this pragmatic logic, in which everything can be bought and you have to think thrice before each step what it will bring and how much it will cost, works well in the minds of Eurocrats, but in the world, many things seem to run counter to rational logic. Poles are a proud nation, and if they are really irritated, the consequences can be quite unpredictable and even tragic, as someone who knows the Poles well, the President of Lithuania, has already pointed out.

Someone might think that the situation is relatively simple: if Poland grows stubborn, all right, do what you wish but in that case, you will not receive the full support package. If you want EU money, then follow the EU wishes. If you don't want to, then you won't get the money either. I am deliberately simplifying the situation, but that is the basic stance. But such a model might also work if the EU were like the USSR - with one center in Moscow (Brussels) deciding everything, and Poland was just one of the republics that had no say. But it is not.

Although decisions are made in Brussels, they are approved by the Council of Europe, which is made up of national leaders. Consequently, whenever the CoE adopts something, Poland's consent is also required. Of course, Poland will not act like a spoiled child and reject some decisions just to take revenge on the EU for not giving them money, but there are enough decisions that may not be particularly good for Poland but, like any other country, it will make concessions in the common interest. If a country, in this case, Poland, feels humiliated, it will have many opportunities to make the normal work of the EU very difficult. This, in turn, can create an unhealthy atmosphere in the EU itself.

An experienced politician like German Chancellor Angela Merkel is aware of this, so she calls not to be hotheaded and to look for compromises. Our Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš also takes a similar position. We will see in the near future whether common sense wins, or whether the revolutionary desire to force others to do as they please by whatever means will prevail. So far, a compromise has always been found, and we hope that this will be the case again. Without pushing a country down on its knees, because such actions always come back to haunt you. Sometimes in a completely unexpected way.

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