The return of Russia's main opposition leader Alexei Navalny to his homeland on a Pobeda plane from Berlin on Sunday turned into an exciting thriller in which it was not clear until the last moment how it would all end. But unlike TV series, it was not filled with actors who can go to the hotel bar to relax after filming after the episode, but with real people who were taken to a solitary confinement cell after being detained at the airport. Although everything ended on Sunday as most observers predicted - with the arrest of Navalny - in reality only one episode had ended in the confrontation between Navalny and Putin. The rest is still ahead.
Yesterday, the next episode began with a kangaroo court at Khimki Police Station, where Navalny had spent the night. The "judge" was called (instead of taking Navalny to court, they took the judge to the police station) and she legally formed 30-day detention for Navalny. Both Navalny himself and his lawyer Vadim Kobzev claim that the "trial" took place disregarding the Criminal Procedure Code of the Russian Federation, and that the "court" judgment itself was illegal and trumped-up. Navalny is accused of failing to attend a mandatory check-in at a police station in connection with his suspended sentence, which expired on December 30 last year, after being discharged from Charité Hospital in Berlin.
In parallel with this court, a trial took place in the Golovinsky District Court of Moscow, where Azat Miftakhov, a graduate student at Moscow State University, was sentenced to six years in prison for breaking a window in the United Russia party's office. Video cinematographer Pavel Zelensky, meanwhile, is facing five years in prison for a tweet in which he commented on the suicide of Yekaterinburg journalist Irina Slavina, who set herself fire in front of a police station. These examples illustrate the level of "rule of law" in Putin's Russia.
Navalny's return to Russia is undoubtedly a historic event, the significance of which must not be underestimated. The stability of the Putin regime is based on an area completely free of political competition. There can only be one politician in the system - Putin, who sets the agenda. With his return, Navalny breaks the agenda dictated by the regime and sets his own.
Putin and his supporters can repeat as much as they want that Navalny is nothing, an insignificant "clown", an inflated figure, but the real actions of the power show the opposite. The "broken" snowplow on the runway at Vnukovo airport, diverting the plane from Vnukovo to Sheremetyevo, removing Navalny's supporters from the airport and the gathering of paid "Olga Buzova fans" in their place - all these things show that the real clowns are the ones who run it, not the man who risks not only his freedom but also his life.
The political situation in Russia is particularly important to us, as our relations have historically been difficult. The highest officials of Latvia - President Egils Levits, Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš and Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs, as well as officials of many other countries of the world, have already condemned the detention of Navalny and demanded his immediate release. In a joint statement, the Baltic foreign ministers are calling on the EU to impose additional sanctions.
Of course, there is little hope that the Kremlin will heed these demands because the central cornerstone of the Putin regime is imperial ambition and pride in allowing themselves to be international hooligans. We do what we want. Rudeness and insulting remarks are replacing diplomatic etiquette, and ridicule of "our Western partners" for a large part of the Russian population is like drugs injected daily through an Ostankino television needle.
It is clear that Navalny's return and his arrest will not cause any revolution in Russia. Putin still (unlike Belarusian dictator Lukashenko) has relatively much support not only from those in power but also from society. At the same time, although Navalny's popularity is growing, it is far from enough for him to be considered a "true" leader of the people. Among Ostankino's propaganda users, Navalny is more of a traitor who, in Putin's words, "must be flushed in the toilet."
But that is the situation today. It can change at any time, and then Navalny can become the Nelson Mandela equivalent, who suffocates in prison like a martyr and comes out of it as a hero of the people. However, these are only possible variants of the scenario, and no one can predict how events will develop in the following "episodes". According to most observers of Russia, Navalny is facing a real prison sentence of many years. It may seem that by isolating Navalny in prison the Kremlin would have solved the Navalny problem, but it would be so if the regime itself felt secure and stable, as it was in the so-called Crimean Consensus.
If we look at the video of Putin's speech five years ago and now, we see how significantly the energy he radiates has decreased. Indifference and disinterest describe the public expressions of Putin in recent years. He comes to life only when he talks about his favorite "geopolitics" topic and the latest weapon systems. The rest is boring for Putin, and he himself is becoming tiring for the public. Signs of regime "fatigue" appear.
Fatigue is a disease that no constant power can avoid - even a relatively successful one. For example, during the time of Hosni Mubarak, Egypt flourished, but everyone got so tired of his 30-year rule that the regime fell like a rotten tree as soon as the conditions were right. So time is working on the side of Navalny. Putin's sinking into the ever-deeper aesthetics of the Soviet era may be close to those who sink into the nostalgia of their youth but not to people who want to think about the future.
The logic of Putin and the people around him is simple: Gorbachev and his perestroika showed unforgivable weakness, destroying the country. Therefore, in order to maintain power, one must act sharply and unwaveringly. No concessions and softness. The crueler, the better. Everyone needs to be intimidated. Lukashenko's example also seems convincing to them. The failure of the Lukashenko regime to hold even fake elections did not worry the Kremlin. The strategic horizon is to hold power today. Let's think about tomorrow tomorrow.
The main strategy of the Kremlin is simple - either buy or intimidate others. Navalny demonstrates that he does not submit to either method of influencing. He demonstratively tells the machinery of power - I am not afraid of you - and that is bothering the Kremlin. In an interview with the TV channel Dozhd, the well-known documentary filmmaker Vitaly Mansky described the situation very aptly: "One person is standing against an evil army. It is extremely impressive. It's Hollywood." Unfortunately, this is not Hollywood. The stakes are real and unimaginably high.