Tomorrow the most influential country in the world - the US - holds a presidential election. At the end of the year, various magazines evaluate the most influential people of the year in the world, although in reality they deceive themselves and their readers, because the most influential person in the world is always one - the President of the United States. Tomorrow people in the US will make a choice about who it will be - either current President Donald Trump or Joe Biden.
This election is considered fateful by some analysts, as one of the candidates, Trump, is very unusual for the position. He does not come from the classic political class and often does not follow the code of conduct adopted in it, which causes resentment in many people. For others, Trump's actions are the very thing they like about him. From Latvia's point of view, we are not very interested in the domestic political aspects of the United States, but very important are the global security issues that the United States has taken part in so far. One might poke fun about the United States as a world’s policeman, but as soon as we start talking about what gave the United States this right, we become somewhat similar with the current US movement, which is demanding the dismissal of the police or at least a significant reduction in funding. As one African-American spokesman pointed out very clearly, it is not the white police who are threatening us on the streets at night, but our own brothers who are short of money. We can also say that it is not the domination of the US that threatens us, but the fact that the United States may move away from maintaining the world order.
From a global security perspective, the statement by former US National Security Adviser John Bolton that the US could withdraw from NATO if Trump is elected is extremely important. If that were to happen, it would mean a complete rebuild of the world's security architecture. Such a scenario for the Kremlin's owners does not appear in even the sweetest dreams induced from cocaine brought from Argentina by diplomatic mail. If so, there is nothing worse than Trump's victory, because NATO without the United States is no longer NATO. A different question is, how realistic is such a scenario?
Trump really looks at Europe quite remotely. In America, Europe has always been seen as the cradle of civilization, to be looked at with respect and even a certain reverence. In the eyes of Trump, Europe does not deserve special respect and reverence, and Europe is quite affronted by that. On the other hand, it must be acknowledged that Trump's accusations are often deserved. Why should America care about, say, German security more than Germany itself does, which spends just over one percent of GDP on defense and actively defends the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia. Seems a bit weird. Verbally Germany supports Ukraine, but in actions it supports the construction of a gas pipeline, the main purpose of which is to stop the transit of gas through Ukraine.
Trump has been running the White House for four years now and we know what to expect from him. At least for the time being, he has not disrupted NATO, nor has he shown a willingness to exceedingly please Russia. It should be recalled that it was during his time that the United States began supplying arms to Ukraine, which his predecessor Barack Obama refused to do. Let us remember that at that time the Vice President of the United States was Biden. The US defense budget has now been significantly increased and the US has withdrawn from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, forcing Moscow to resume the unpleasant arms race. In addition, the redeployment of US troops from Germany to Poland does not indicate any US plans to end assisting European security.
Unlike Trump, Biden has been in politics for most of his life, having once become the youngest senator in U.S. history at the age of 30. As a result, he is well versed in the virtues and laws of political behavior. From this point of view, he is certainly more predictable than his competitor, but
the US political system is not based on one person. Not even if that person is the president of the United States. There is also the Congress, which will be fully re-elected tomorrow, and the Senate, where a third of the senators will be re-elected.
Which of the two US presidential candidates is preferable to us? It must be said that this will be the choice of the US people, and we must strive to establish and maintain good relations with our strategic partner, regardless of who will live in the White House for the next four years.