The decline in births as a result of Krišjānis Kariņš's government policy is as self-evident, as the stability of mortality despite Covid-19 disease is incomprehensible.
The Central Statistical Bureau has calculated the preliminary birth and death rates in October 2020 and thus also in the first 10 months of the year together. The decrease in the birth rate is taking place at the pace recorded this year, in which the indicators of individual months fluctuate. For example, in the last three months that have already ended, 189 fewer newborns have been registered in August this year than in August 2019, 120 less in September and 185 less in October than a year ago.
The number of 1375 newborns registered in October of this year draws attention with going below the border line of 1400 newborns, to which we are not yet used in Latvia. Although 1304 newborns were registered in February of this year, it could be explained by the peculiarities of the month regarding the number of days. October, on the other hand, has the largest possible number of days according to the solar calendar used in Latvia.
October 2020 confirms the long-term trends in birth rates, i.e. lack of birth rates. In 2016, 1817 newborns were registered and in six years it is almost half a thousand less. The current decline in the birth rate is a little ahead of the aging population, because of which the birth rate must approach zero, no matter what people think and talk about. The government has no exclusive right to overcome the effects of an aging population, but the use of public resources can delay this effect by a few years. It turned out that material resources are not even needed. Beautiful words were enough during the 13th Saeima election campaign and new faces in the Saeima and the government after the elections, so that the intensification of the birth rate would reverse the effect of an aging population by a year and a half. The current decline in the birth rate is a numerical indicator of people's frustration with the first year of K. Kariņš's government. It should be taken into account that children are currently being born, whose birth was decided by their parents 9-12 months ago. October of this year is notable for the fact that decisions about the children born this month have not yet been influenced by Covid-19, which in the first months of 2020 was only slowly turning from another strange event in China into a warning that it may also apply to Latvia.
The number of deaths is much more interesting than other years because of Covid-19. This, unlike the number of newborns, does not show any change. Looking back at October 2016, when Covid-19 had not appeared in anyone's wildest dreams, 2392 deaths can be seen, which was more than 2311 deaths in October of this year. The differences between the two figures fit into a fluctuation corridor where two opposing forces compete. On the one hand, the number of deaths is reduced by the decline of the total remaining population. On the other hand, the aging population increases the number of deaths, as it increases the probability of death for every remaining person. Covid-19 has not shifted this balance in either direction not even by a bit.
If desired, the CSB data can be used equally well to claim that Covid-19 is in fact an ineffectual seasonal virus infection and to praise the success of the state and medical staff in the fight against a terrible infection.
It should be noted that mortality has not increased as a result of neither Covid-19 nor measures to combat it, although there is no doubt that access to doctors and treatment is now very difficult for the population. Evil tongues would add that such data show how small the effect of treatment or non-treatment is on a person's survival or death.
However, the October mortality rates are not sufficient to draw firm conclusions about Covid-19. It only takes a month more to make the conclusions much more reliable, at least with regard to the direct effects of Covid-19. Comparing the indicators of the last two years, this year the number of deaths in September is 9 more than in September 2019 and in October - 20 more than in October 2019. The increase in the number of deaths from September to October can also be explained by the increase in the number of Covid-19 patients. According to the Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the country began September with 81 people who had contracted Covid-19 in the previous 14 days. The same indicator was 374 people on October 1, 2686 people on November 1 and 5298 people yesterday (November 24). If a really serious disease spreads so fast, then the death toll in November should go up noticeably fast. Already in October, the large and growing number of cases became statistically significant, and in November this process continues rapidly. Covid-19 is not a lightning strike that kills in an instant, but a virus that causes complications, so deaths in November should harvest the seeds sown in October. Although no one has ever equated the number of cases with the number of deaths, the overall mortality rate should respond to a disease whose number of patients has changed from zero last November to 10,000 at the end of November this year. It would be unfortunate, of course, to have to place about 100 crosses more than 2,174 graves who died last November, but at least the questions about the believability of the Covid-19 description and the tests used to diagnose the disease could be resolved.