Aivars Lembergs: Russia has already lost the war because it is unjust

Aivars Lembergs was one of those who, in the first days after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, expressed the view that the war should be stopped immediately; the warring parties should come to the negotiating table. For expressing this view, he was severely criticized by his political opponents.

Unnamed persons even called for his expulsion from the May 4th Declaration Club association. The opponents were too hasty, as it turned out that he had never been a member of this association - voting for Latvia's independence on May 4, 1990, does not automatically mean joining a non-governmental organisation whose name includes this historic event. As is well known, Lembergs was one of those who voted for Latvia's independence on that date.

The war is lost for Russia

Asked by Neatkarīgā whether he had changed his opinion on the war in Ukraine under the influence of criticism and now aligned himself with those who believe that the war should continue until Russia's defeat, Lembergs said: "Russia's invasion of Ukraine still comes as a surprise to me. I am still surprised that something like this can happen on such a large scale in the vicinity of our country. Nothing could be worse than war. I am categorically against such an invasion. Russia has already lost this war by taking the first step on Ukrainian soil. Russia cannot win this war. It is not a question of a technical victory, which perhaps can be achieved. In essence, Russia has lost this war because it is an unjust war."

Talks must continue at a higher level

"The Ukrainian people chose their own President in fair elections. Trying to change the policy of a neighboring country with weapons is unacceptable. That is why my position remains that the most important thing is to stop the war and come to the negotiating table. I fully support the initiative for negotiations that President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed about two weeks ago. I was the first Latvian politician to support such an initiative. This initiative was subsequently expressed by the President of France, then by the Chancellor of Germany, the President of Turkey, the Prime Minister of Israel and, a few days ago, by the President of the United States. I do not understand those loudmouths who are rubbing their hands in Latvia, hoping that Russia will lose the war and Ukraine will win. The war must be stopped immediately. Instead of war, negotiations. This is also a radical difference between my approach and that of our partners, who believe that Putin must be defeated. The right way is to stop the war. I have come under tremendous attack for taking this view. However much I may be condemned here, I am still in favor of stopping the war and continuing the negotiations, especially at the highest level. As you know, they are taking place now, but for the time being only at a lower level. Logically, there is still a lot of work to be done to get to a higher level. We, Latvia, cannot replace Zelensky, Putin, NATO or the European Union there. I believe that the negotiations should be four-way - Zelensky, Putin, NATO and the European Union," said Lembergs.

Meanwhile, Latvia is under threat

"If the war continues with the expectation of Russia's defeat, which is also the intention of Latvia's political leadership, then the situation could turn very sad. I am worried that Latvia may also be caught up in the next stage of the war. From this point of view, it would be very important to see whether Latvia is faithfully fulfilling all the agreements concluded in connection with the agreements on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Latvia. I have heard the opinion from the Latvian government that these agreements may not be honored. If the position is that these agreements can be broken, that means giving the other side a reason to break the agreements as well. This could have extremely serious consequences. Contracts must be honored. I do not understand, for example, how Putin is going to enforce his ultimatum to push NATO back into its 1997 borders. I do not see how that can be done. The war in Ukraine does not address this issue, at least for the time being. Until this issue is taken off the agenda by Russia, which can be done both loudly and quietly, Latvia is very much at risk.

This ultimatum affects Latvia in the most direct way. Unfortunately, we have little influence in this process. Logically, we are in NATO and we are staying in NATO because, in the circumstances, we have no other alternatives. But any solution from a position of strength does not suit us either. The slogan 'Hurray, we'll defeat Russia' does not sound viable to me", said Lembergs.

Can't forget about the nuclear buttons

Asked whether the inclusion of his political opponent Juris Jurašs in the Ukrainian National Guard could bring the end of the war closer, Lembergs said: "He has a nose for money. Can you really call him a warrior? He is interested in business and making money."

Asked whether the war in Ukraine would have a significant impact on the results of the upcoming Saeima elections, Lembergs said: "No, I don't think so. But anything could happen before October. The point is that Russia has nuclear buttons of different calibers."

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