Academics are skeptical about the admission of war-torn Ukraine to the EU in the coming years, but some domestic politicians believe that Ukraine's admission is possible even in wartime.
Latvia applied to join the EU four years after independence in 1995. It took Latvia nine years to meet the so-called Copenhagen criteria and adapt its legal framework to EU standards - it became a full member of the EU in 2004.
On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed Ukraine's application for EU membership, and the document was sent to Brussels, where it received a standing ovation in the European Parliament after the President's speech. The President of Latvia, Egils Levits, has also said that the EU should immediately grant Ukraine candidate status and access to funding. A similar position has also been expressed by the President of Estonia, Alar Karis.
But even in the context of new developments - after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, important decisions that used to take months and years are being taken in a matter of days - academics are skeptical about Ukraine becoming a full member of the EU in the near future.
Kārlis Bukovskis, Deputy Director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, believes that Ukraine's accession to the EU will not happen in the next few years. The expert explains that admission to the EU follows standardized procedures which take time. He also doubts that the EU Member States will even agree to grant Ukraine candidate status, given the unpredictable situation in the country.
"Even within the EU itself, it is an unusual situation for a country that is in a state of war and under attack to apply to the EU," Bukovskis told LETA news agency, adding that even if the EU Member States, driven by political sympathies, grant Ukraine candidate status, accession negotiations will not start and its accession to the EU will not take place in the next few years anyway.
On the other hand, at the Saeima European Affairs Committee, which on Wednesday discussed Latvia's position on Ukraine's accession, Atis Lejiņš, representing New Unity (Jaunā Vienotība), believes that the state of war in Ukraine is not an obstacle to its accession to the EU. In this situation, Ukraine is also not obliged to fulfil the criteria that countries before had to fulfil before becoming an EU member state.
"It would be a different process, not the usual one for peacetime. There are criteria that no other country that became a member of the European Union had to meet - the criterion that people in Ukraine are dying for Europe. That is not unimportant. There is always room to speed up the process and postpone compliance with the criteria,"
the MP said. He acknowledges, however, that some Member States might resist an accelerated procedure. "Who knows. The European Council will meet on Friday morning and we will put our arguments on the table," Lejiņš added.
Rihards Kols, representing the National Alliance (Nacionālā Apvienība) in the European Affairs Committee, is of the same opinion and points out that this would be a political decision by the EU Member States. Ukraine could comply with EU requirements once the situation has stabilized.
At the same time, he points out that accelerating Ukraine's accession to the 27-nation bloc could have a chain reaction. Turkey, which has been a candidate country for twenty years, might wish to be subject to a similar procedure in the event of Ukraine's accession.
Bukovskis also points out that there are countries in the Western Balkans that have tried to change and are struggling to join the EU. These countries cannot be told that Ukraine is more eligible than they are.
Vita Anda Tērauda, Chair of the European Affairs Committee from Development/For! (Attīstībai/Par!), is also optimistic about Ukraine's accession to the EU. However, she predicts that it will take Ukraine two to five years to become a member of the European Union. But in her view, Ukraine deserves candidate status now. "I believe that Ukraine has demonstrated its commitment to the values of the European Union through its heroic actions," says the Chair of the Committee.