On June 29, a seminar on China's development and new opportunities in Sino-Latvian relations was organized by the Embassy of the People's Republic of China in Latvia. The Ambassador of the People's Republic of China to Latvia Liang Jianquan emphasized that the date of the seminar had been chosen because the Chinese Communist Party celebrates its 100th anniversary on July 1.
The Chinese ambassador emphasized that China would soon reach the first goal of the century - to complete building a moderately prosperous society, and will move towards the second goal of the century - to create a modern socialist state by the middle of this century. The Chinese Ambassador to Latvia called for the abandonment of the Cold War mentality and ideological prejudices when building relations between China and Latvia, not to get involved in forming blocs, but to build on the understanding of the 21st century, respecting different national development models and approaches to public interests.
Most of the seminar participants pointed to the positive achievements in Latvian-Chinese relations. Andris Sprūds, director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs and professor at Riga Stradiņš University, emphasized that these relations are not simple. He pointed out that Latvia alone has no problems building good relations with China, but as Latvia is "a part of the common NATO and EU family", we must take into account the common values of the family, and currently there are quite complicated relations between Latvia's most important strategic partner - the USA - and China, and this cannot but affect Latvian-Chinese relations at the official level.
To a large extent, from the very pragmatic explanation of Andris Sprūds, a fundamental question arises, is it in Latvia's interests to always follow any call made by a major power important to Latvia? As there are currently calls in both Latvia and at the EU political level for instituting the same regime of sanctions and restrictions against both Russia and China, it should be recalled that from the point of view of Latvia's interests there is a huge asymmetry between China and Russia.
The People's Republic of China does not threaten, and will not threaten Latvia in the short or long term, moreover, neither politically, nor economically, nor militarily.
For comparison. There is a very high probability that Russia may threaten Latvia politically, economically and militarily in the near future and in the long run.
Consequently, it is not in Latvia's interests to support equal sanctions or retaliatory regimes against Russia and China.
However, Latvia must take into account that there are great powers in the world whose leaders believe that China's growing influence could jeopardize the dominance of these great powers in world politics.
One example is the international organization G7. When the organization was founded in 1975, the world's seven most industrially advanced countries (in terms of total GDP at actual prices) were the United States, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Canada. In 1975, China was the world's largest country in terms of population, ranking 8th in terms of total GDP. In 2019, however, the G7 member states were no longer the seven most developed countries in the world. In 2019, in terms of real GDP, China was in 2nd place in the world, India in 5th place, and Brazil in 9th place. In 2019, Canada was only in tenth place in the world. As this trend continues, the global economic influence of China, India, Brazil and other countries is growing, outpacing that former influence of G7 powers.
Latvia's siding with any G7 country, in an effort to reduce the growing economic influence of China, India, Brazil and other countries, will in no way change global trends. Latvia's economic and political, but especially military, significance and influence is so insignificant not only on the global but even on the EU economy that it does not change the balance of power. In addition, Latvia's siding with any G7 country in an economic confrontation with China will not bring any direct economic or political benefits to Latvia.
When constructing Latvia's model of relations with China or any other superpower, the asymmetry of size must be taken into account. A small country like Latvia, compared to the great powers, will never be as important an economic and political partner to China or any other superpower as Germany, France, Britain or Russia can be to China. To a large extent, the cooperation format offered by China for Eastern Europe - 17+1, or currently 16+1 - is a rational way to balance the asymmetry of the size of small countries in cooperation with the huge economic size of modern China.
It is not in Latvia's interests to make any unilateral political move regarding the People's Republic of China, even if the leadership of a G7 member state that is important to Latvia were to call for it.
It is also not in Latvia's interests to act against the common interests of the EU. As Latvia is an EU member state, it is membership in the EU that ensures the greatest protection and representation of Latvia's interests in relations with all third countries, including the People's Republic of China, as well as with global corporations. It is in Latvia's interests to comply with the EU's common protocols and directives and the system for protecting the common economic interests.
Under the framework of economic relations set by the EU, Latvia can pursue an economic policy in accordance with its interests by offering mutually beneficial economic projects to China. Such projects have already been noted both in the Rail Baltica, Latvijas pasts and Riga Airport development concepts, as well as in planning for the possible specialization of Latvia's largest ports in the future.
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