After the war, there won't be three great centers of world power as predicted by Andris Sprūds

The large-scale war between Russia and Ukraine is now in its fourth week, and it is obvious that whatever the outcome of the war, it will have a fundamental impact on the future world order.

Russia's so-called foreign minister (it is no longer possible to consider these war criminals as respectable politicians) Lavrov said in an interview with TV channel RBK on Wednesday that "this is a fateful moment in history because it reflects the struggle in the broadest sense of the word over what the future world order will be". Putin echoed him, saying in a televised address that what is really going on in Ukraine is a struggle with the West, whose "aim is to worsen the living standards of millions of [Russian] people. They do not want a strong and sovereign Russia". It is imperative to clarify here that these statements merely reflect the hallucinations that are in the heads of the Kremlin masters and that have been broadcast for years nonstop by countless mindless channels.

This is not to say that Lavrov has said anything fundamentally wrong in this particular situation. Russia has indeed waged open war against the existing world order, and this in turn means that the existing world order cannot remain the same. Even if everyone would like it to. If the war had ended in three or four days, it is possible that, with minor adjustments, everything would have remained as it was before. Some sanctions for a checkmark, some extremely deep condemnation, some period of isolation for Russia, but in time things could go back to the way they were. Like after the 2008 invasion of Georgia, the 2014 annexation of Crimea, the downing of the Malaysian airliner and other times.

Russia's quite inhuman practice of waging war, with heinous war crimes filling the world's news every day, makes a return to the former global order impossible. It is only a matter of time before more than just a few people, journalists and political analysts ask the question: why the hell do we need the UN if Russia can veto any decision it does not like? There is no talk of that yet, but there is no doubt that after the war the actions of other international organizations, including NATO, in this situation will also be scrutinized. All the more so because the war is far from over. It has only just begun, and the behavior of each country and each organization in the future course of the war is not yet known.

It cannot be ruled out that, after the war, it is Ukraine that becomes the strongest military power in Europe, around which other threatened countries, including Latvia, will rally, rather than being in a military bloc with Germany and France. I am not saying that this will be the case, with these examples I am only outlining the possible changes that could take place after the end of the war, because it is not just a question of the conditional West (the democratic bloc) fighting the equally conditional East (authoritarian regimes), which is currently supposedly the top layer of the confrontation.

After the war, the balance of power in the West itself will also change, because at the moment the West, with its helpless (cowardly) watching as hundreds and thousands of civilians die in Ukraine; its shameful silence, ignoring Zelensky's desperate pleas to close the Ukrainian sky, is daily losing its moral authority and accruing Chamberlain's points of shame.

On Tuesday, in an address to the British Parliament, Zelensky spoke quite openly about NATO, saying that for years we had been fooled by an "open door," but that it had never truly been open. We do not need it anymore. We are ready to build defense organizations with other countries that are also ready to fight, not just to talk. The next day, addressing the US Congress, Zelensky was more specific: "The wars of the past have prompted our predecessors to create institutions that were supposed to protect us from war. But... They don't work. We see it. You see it. So, we need new ones. New institutions. New alliances. And we offer them. We offer to create an association - U-24. United for peace. A union of responsible states that have the strength and conscience to stop conflicts. Immediately. Provide all necessary assistance in 24 hours. If necessary - weapons. If necessary - sanctions. Humanitarian support. Political support. Funding. Everything necessary to preserve peace quickly. To save lives. In addition, such an association could provide assistance to those who are experiencing natural disasters, man-made disasters. Who fell victim to a humanitarian crisis or epidemic."

Zelensky says out loud what is increasingly palpable in the air. What is the point of being in a military alliance with the Macrons, the Scholzes and the rest of the Austrians, who, with their eternal desire to just "talk", are putting the brakes on sharp and active action? Perhaps it would be better to be together with the Poles, the Czechs and the Ukrainians? Together with those who are aware of the danger?

These are just some of the questions that will have to be answered in the aftermath of a war whose outcome and end date no one can predict today. However, it is highly probable that the post-war world order will be quite different from the present one. In my opinion, it will certainly not be the world with three major "centers of power" - the West (US, NATO); Russia; and China - mentioned by the Director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Andris Sprūds, in his interview to Neatkarīgā.

Now that US President Joe Biden has called Putin a war criminal and the whole Western world is united to stop Putin's Russian aggression, a "draw" outcome of the war is no longer possible, however much some might like it. Therefore, a future model based on the assumption that hostilities in Ukraine are somehow brought to a somewhat satisfactory end for everyone, that the civilized world distances itself from Russia as much as possible, and that such a "frozen" state of affairs persists for years, even decades, is extremely unlikely.

One may ask: but what would be the most likely scenario? Since a war has been launched and the aggressor, Russia, itself believes that the war is not with Ukraine, but with a world order "imposed" by the West, there can only be one outcome: one side wins. And the entire history of civilization to date shows that it will not be Russia.

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