On Thursday evening, after long and tense talks between EU leaders, a compromise was finally reached on the EU's seven-year budget of EUR 1.8 trillion, including the Recovery Fund (official name - Next Generation EU, NGEU) of EUR 750 billion.
Let me remind you that on 16 November, Poland and Hungary vetoed the EU budget, thus jeopardizing its adoption until the end of the year. The compromise reached on Thursday evening is not surprising, as even before the EU summit, most observers predicted that an agreement would be reached in the end. The only question was - what will this agreement be like? The situation was not very favorable for Poland and Hungary, as their vetoes did not portray them in a very sympathetic light in the eyes of other European countries. If there are a relatively large number of people in Latvia who sympathize with the Polish and Hungarian national conservative governments, then in the ruling political class orchestra of the EU they are perceived as players who keep hitting the wrong notes. It is one thing to express a different opinion from the majority in a favorable or at least neutral environment, and quite another when you are seen as a troublemaker that bothers everyone else.
The veto of Hungary and Poland in the European political environment was perceived as an unfriendly gesture that prevents everyone else from getting the big money. It should be remembered that the non-adoption of the budget also affected the EUR 750 billion NGEU. It is easy to veto the distribution of this money while sitting on the couch and not being responsible for anything, but it is a completely different thing when the whole of Europe and the leaders of the other 25 countries are looking at you. It was therefore clear that sooner or later the "troublemakers" would make concessions. In addition, it should be noted here that in 2019, these two countries were the largest recipients of EU money - Poland received 12.1 billion euros from the EU, Hungary - 5.1 billion euros. On the other hand, the EU, no matter what you think about it, is no road roller just running over the disobedient. Even if this is sometimes the case, it is done in such a way that those who are ran over by the road roller do not feel too humiliated or offended.
This time too, the main question was not how to change something of substance, but how to agree so that everyone could say that they had achieved their own goals. High hopes were placed on the current German Presidency of the EU and on Angela Merkel's experience and authority. These expectations have been fully met, and it is Merkel who is being declared a key figure in reaching a compromise. What is this compromise?
The link between the rule of law and access to EU money is maintained, as requested by those who would like to penalize Poland and Hungary, but this link is further restricted. It will not be so easy to punish Poland and Hungary with money. According to Reuter, a joint statement by EU leaders will say that the principles of the rule of law will be applied solely to ensure that EU funds are spent in a targeted way, not to penalize a country for failing to comply with these principles. Access to EU money must be based on "objective, fair, impartial and fact-based, ensuring due process, non-discrimination and equal treatment of Member States."
This fuzzy and open to interpretations text was probably proposed from the beginning, but it did not give Poland and Hungary any guarantee that they would not really have difficulty accessing EU money. Therefore, in addition to these general phrases, the agreement already contains a much more tangible point. The money access barrier mechanism can only be triggered by a ruling of the European Court of Justice. The same court where our Ineta Ziemele started working this year. The speed of proceedings in the European Court of Justice has been such that Poland and Hungary have received at least a couple of years to avoid any financial sanctions.
What will happen in two or three years' time is not so important now, because the old Scarlett O'Hara principle - we will think about it tomorrow - is not unique to Latvian politicians. It is popular all over the world. And it should be noted that it often leads to very reasonable results. As a result, all obstacles to the adoption of the EU budget have been removed, and we too can start planning the use of this money.