Belarus military exercises scenario does not affect Latvia

The military maneuvers between Russia and Belarus, which will take place until next weekend, do not pose a direct threat to Latvia. The published scenario gives Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania the main roles of enemies. However, the emergency conscription in Belarus and the reserve build-up in Russia are indications of a possible escalation of the conflict beyond the war game.

The scenario of the military maneuvers Union Resolve 2022 (Союзная решимость - 2022) is basically the same as the one played out in recent exercises in the NATO bloc countries, including Latvia.

Different resolve

Formally, the exercise is defensive in nature. In the first phase, internal threats and disturbances are caused by illegal armed formations, or little green men as they are commonly known. In the second phase, an open attack is already underway and the country, together with its allies, repels it. In order to implement this scenario, Russia has sent 30,000 soldiers and a large amount of military equipment to Belarus for training. Destroyers, strategic bombers, missile launchers, artillery, tanks. The Eastern Military District command has also been transferred to Belarus. Russia is thus demonstrating its ability to deliver its power in any direction and at any distance.

The exercise, called Union Resolve 2022, is a clear reference to the NATO bloc's Operation Atlantic Resolve, which was implemented in 2014 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Americans sent forces to Eastern Europe, including Latvia, on a long-term rotational basis. Similarly, Russia has now deployed its army in Belarus, formally for training purposes. The transatlantic resolve is being countered by a Russian-Belarusian Union Resolve.

The exercise is planned to take place simultaneously at five Belarusian military ranges and also outside them. Four airfields are involved.

Nuclear weapons might be left behind in the region

The Russian analytical publication "Eurasia. Expert" and other sources have published a map of the exercise and the intention. The defensive positions are Polesia and the Northern Federation (Belarus and the Russian Federation), while the attackers are the Western coalition, which also includes Narisa (Lithuania), Pomoria (Poland), Dneprovia (Ukraine) and Klopia (which could be part of Ukrainian and Polish territory). Latvia does not appear. This is probably why Lithuania has increased the readiness of its armed forces and Latvia has not. Of course, the names of the imaginary countries are not deciphered on the map, and their location is different from real life. However, there is no doubt that the training scenario is reproducing a situation that is possible in real life. The only question is whether these defensive maneuvers are not, in fact, preparations for an invasion of Dneprovia, and there is a great deal of anxiety about this in Ukraine. Although Russia claims that its army will leave Belarusian territory after the exercise, experts say that some Russian weapons might remain there, including nuclear weapons. This is also what Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said: such a response is possible if NATO nuclear weapons are deployed in Eastern Europe. And it will no longer be a temporary threat for a training period, but a permanent threat.

More is needed

There are other signs that the Union Resolve is not just another exercise and is unlikely to end in ten days' time. Ukrainian publications report that alongside the exercises on Belarusian territory, Russia is basically blocking the territorial sea adjacent to Ukraine. Russian missile and artillery exercises will take place in the Black and Azov Seas from Sunday for a week. The news portal zn.ua suggests that this could be a cover for the blockade of Ukrainian ports, as no movement corridors are made for merchant ships during the exercises. And it is clear that the shipping companies, too, will immediately turn their ships away when they hear the word blockade.

In Belarus, meanwhile, urgent conscription has been announced for those citizens who were entitled to deferment, for students at agricultural universities and for citizens in the reserve. On Russian social networks, new recruits are either proud or despairing, having received unexpected summons from recruitment centers. They have to go and train to fight. Maybe also to fight. The US Department of Defense has announced that Russia continues to increase its military presence on Ukraine's borders and has now redeployed more than 100,000 troops there from other regions. Looks like more is needed.