In the context of the war, it has almost been forgotten that the Saeima elections are due in less than half a year.
Although things are moving fast and no one can say what will happen in the meantime, it can already be said that in times of war (especially in the early stages) those in power have a great advantage over those in opposition. Aldis Gobzems, last year's most prominent oppositionist, has completely disappeared from the political radar. Today, his name-calling and swearing are definitely no longer in demand. The Šlesers/Točs party has driven itself into a deep dead-end with its "let's be friends with Russia (Putin)".
ZZS still hasn't been able to solve the leadership problem and it is still unclear with which prime ministerial candidate the party alliance will go to the elections. On the one hand, it has not been possible to find a more worthy candidate than Māris Kučinskis, but on the other hand, it was under his leadership as Prime Minister that ZZS lost its place in the ruling coalition in the last Saeima elections.
But the biggest impact of this war will be on the future fate of Harmony (Saskaņa). Whatever its leaders may have said so far about standing "above ethnic lines", it was and remains a party oriented towards the Russian electorate. The fact that some Latvian speakers also vote for it does not change the essence of the matter.
It is no secret that many Russian speakers are deep inside the Russian information space and have, over the years, absorbed the Kremlin's propaganda poison. Knowing this perfectly well, for many years, in order not to lose the electorate, Harmony tried to sit on two chairs at the same time - the Latvian-European one and the Russian-imperial one. The fact that after 2014, Harmony broke its cooperation ties with United Russia did not change the party's rhetoric much. In practice, it took the form of Jānis Urbanovičs' impersonation of Leopold the Cat: guys, let's all get along!
This position of Leopold the Cat, however, did not seem to be enough on the part of the so-called Latvian parties to make them accept Harmony as a potential cooperation partner. Since Zatlers' "not even tanks will separate us" in 2011, there has been no serious talk of taking this party into the big (parliamentary) coalition. The ten-year rule in Riga was the highest flight of Harmony, but the sad end of this rule makes it difficult for the party to return to its former position. This is all the more so as a serious competitor to Harmony has emerged in the Russian-speaking niche - the Latvian Russian Union (Latvijas Krievu savienība, LKS). Paradoxically, this may turn out to be for the better. In what way?
In the form in which Harmony has been so far, it has no chance of entering the big (national) politics of Latvia. Daugavpils, Rēzekne and a few other municipalities are the party's political ceiling. Russia's aggression in Ukraine has given Harmony a theoretical chance to prove that it is not a satellite party of the Kremlin; that it stands strictly for the Latvian state, its sovereignty and strongly condemns any Russian imperial and chauvinist tendencies.
I am clearly aware that this is more about theoretical possibilities than practical solutions, but there is practically no other way for the Harmony party to play any role in the Saeima other than as eternal oppositionists. Attempts to continue to sit on two chairs in this politically black-and-white time would forever remove the possibility for Harmony to engage in national politics on equal terms. The answer to the question: what was your stance in 2022? - will mark the path of everyone's future for many years to come.
That is why the party's position must be clear, as it should be in times of war. As party leader Urbanovičs himself writes: "With all the great transformation that the world is going through, it is time for the Russians of Latvia to change too. 'I will not participate', 'not my business', 'let them manage on their own' - these so popular excuses not to get involved in the political life of the country are no longer acceptable."
I do not wish to lecture an experienced politician on how to express himself, but the choice suggested in this call is not specific enough for the Latvian political environment to accept Harmony. It needs to be more direct and concrete. Let us be realistic. Harmony will not be included in the coalition in these elections anyway, no matter what it says or what statements it publishes against Russian aggression. But Harmony can work for the future.
If it were to take on the educational, enlightening role that some coalition parties are currently trying to give to the fledgling Russian-language cable television, it could, with its authority, at least partially dispel the Russian propaganda stories about Ukrainian "Nazis", that "everything is not so clear-cut", that "both sides have a point", that "there is no solid evidence", etc., and instead clearly and unequivocally condemn the atrocities of the Russian army in Ukraine, then perhaps the attitude towards Harmony in the Latvian part of the political spectrum might change.
The members of Harmony might argue: what good is this change in attitude if those Latvians who care about these issues are not going to vote for us anyway? Meanwhile, a large part of our electorate will not forgive us for giving in to the "ukry" and the "pindos". Moreover, you yourself have written - probably. It is possible that Latvian attitudes will change, but it is just as possible that they will not. Nils Ušakovs published a strong statement against Russian aggression at the beginning of the war. Was this statement greeted with a standing ovation by the Latvian public? No, rather with skepticism and suspicion.
I completely agree, which is why I say that for the elections on October 1, the main task of the hypothetical new Harmony would be to survive as a party, to enter the Saeima, but already on a different ideological basis. Let the hardcore, irredeemable Russia supporters go to the political leprosarium - the LKS. Before the last parliamentary elections, Unity (Vienotība) was also on the verge of disintegration. A large group left to join Movement For (Kustība Par), Edvards Smiltēns left demonstratively at the party congress, but Unity attached the name New to itself and is now the leading force in the coalition, despite its small number of votes.
I am not saying that New Harmony could repeat this magic trick, but it is the only chance for Harmony to seize the opportunity and integrate into the Latvian political environment, so that in the next Saeima, when there are some political shifts, it could prove useful in some combination. If, however, the party's leadership considers the main goal to be the largest possible number of seats (more funding from the state budget), but without any prospect of serious participation in the national political process, then there is another option - to continue fighting for the electorate in the same niche as the LKS and to share with Ždanoka, Mamikins & Co a place in the already mentioned political isolator, where they can imitate political activity for state money in rather comfortable conditions.
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