On the sixth day of the war launched by Russia in Ukraine, Defense Minister Artis Pabriks continued to defend his position that compulsory military service is not the right solution to strengthen Latvia's defense. After the NATO summit, which decided to strengthen the alliance's eastern flank, this position has changed drastically. There is also support for the idea in the Saeima, the only discussion could be on how to implement the new procedure in law.
On March 1, commenting on the introduction of compulsory military service in Latvia, Pabriks (Development/For!, Attīstībai/Par!) explained that this is not a "life preserver" that will suddenly create better conditions for fighting an adversary, as it would take time - about ten years - to change the system.
"Compulsory military service also has many and varied weaknesses, which is not the case with the system that has been developed in Latvia. I can tell you honestly - believe me - where the neighboring countries have recently introduced or renewed military service, they are no more effective than the Latvian forces," the Defense Minister said.
At the NATO summit in Spain, the Defense Minister seems to have gotten some forceful hints, because on Tuesday he admitted that the current defense system has exhausted itself. Therefore, the idea is to introduce compulsory National Defense Service gradually - over five years. The first phase of implementation will take place from January 1, 2023, and will be open to voluntary application. In the first year, around 1,000 people could be recruited.
Recruitment is planned to take place twice a year, on January 1 and July 1. There will also be a choice of four types of service. It will be possible to join the National Defense Service or to sign a five-year contract (20 days per year) with the National Guard. There will also be a platoon commander's course at university, as well as alternative service. The service is expected to last 11 months.
The idea of the Ministry of Defense is fully supported by Juris Rancāns, Chairman of the Saeima Defense, Internal Affairs and Corruption Prevention Committee, representing the Conservatives (Konservatīvie). He explains that Latvia needs 40 to 50 thousand reservists trained in the art of war, depending on the threat level.
"The existing system and the concept adopted a few years ago envisaged professional service and national defense training, with the idea that a certain number of young people would go to professional service and the National Guard. But we understand that the demographic situation is quite difficult, there is a shortage of such people in Latvia. The voluntary principle cannot provide the necessary number of reservists. Therefore, the situation obliges us to follow this path,"
says Rancāns, adding that the new model will certainly require a lot of money.
Pabriks shared the potential costs of compulsory service on Latvian Radio's "Krustpunktā" program a month before the war. "If we want these soldiers not to be like in Soviet times, where you were conscripted, you did your time and you didn't really learn anything new (...), then for us, the calculation of 3,000 new recruits in one year would mean that before that we need a one-off investment in logistics, barracks, security of close to 600 million euros. And for every 3,000, we need at least €100-130 million every year in daily expenses." Latvia's current defense budget is around €750 million.
Edvīns Šnore, who represents the National Alliance (Nacionālā apvienība) in the Saeima Defense Committee, is also convinced that compulsory service is the only solution for a country the size of Latvia. He agrees with the Minister that the country lacks soldiers and citizens who know how to handle a gun.
"We dragged it out for five years, looking for other solutions,"
he said, recalling that he had already submitted a draft law on compulsory service to the Saeima in 2017.
Šnore sees the proposed gradual transition to National Defense Service as the right step, noting that the aim is to ensure a certain number of soldiers in the country. If this number can be met by volunteers, there is no need to create compulsory service, the politician said. However, if there is a shortage of soldiers, the number can be increased by various means, and sometimes the lottery principle also works, the committee secretary said.
The introduction of compulsory military service is also supported by Jānis Urbanovičs, leader of the opposition Harmony (Saskaņa) party. He sees it not only as strengthening the country's defense capabilities, but also as a school of manhood for young people.
"There is a great need for service, for a school of manhood. Every young man should go through such a school to be able to defend his family, his girlfriend from a criminal. There is never too much manhood, and now there is a clear shortage of it. Office plankton is being cultivated and it cannot be overlooked," says the politician. Asked about the resources needed to introduce compulsory service and whether such spending is justified, Urbanovičs said that such investments would pay off handsomely for the country.
More critical is Māris Možvillo, a member of the responsible committee representing the Independents (Neatkarīgie) faction of the Saeima, who believes that Pabriks came up with the idea of compulsory service under the influence of "pre-election hype", but that it will be difficult to recruit the number of young people needed for compulsory service.
"Are we aware what kind of young soldiers will come from 12th grade, with what kind of physical training?
If compulsory service is introduced, we should start talking about it already during school, from about fifth to sixth grade, where boys and girls would be systematically physically strengthened, prepared for army service. If we say that after three years there will be a conscription, I don't see who could be conscripted," says Možvillo.