Results of the 14th Saeima elections. Part 2
In the first part of this series, I wrote that although the 14th Saeima elections are nominally scheduled after more than a year, we can already talk about their results, because the construction of the political system in Latvia is finished, which means that only insignificant, cosmetic changes are possible in the future. In the previous article, I described this new political system, but this time I will talk about the main task (goal) of this election and the mechanisms by which this goal will be achieved. And, of course, about the very results of the 14th Saeima elections.
The main goal of the 14th Saeima elections scheduled for October 1, 2022, is to extend the power of the current political elite for another four years. The results of these elections must ensure long-term stability, the basic condition for which is no further fundamental shifting of spheres of influence, loud internal scandals or, God forbid, arrests. This, of course, only applies to their own people. To those who are close in class. All sorts of people like Šlesers and Šķēle can and should be bothered, so that there is no unnecessary suspicion in society that the power structures have become toothless, while for those closer to the current power - sorry... they are granted full immunity by the political system.
Nor should useful people be even verbally offended. For example, when writing about gambling tycoon Jānis Zuzāns and his new love, it is safe and even worth mentioning that he is a millionaire and a patron of arts, but it is better not to mention the money pump that provides him with this beautiful life. Not because Zuzāns could somehow take revenge. No, simply mentioning Zuzāns' core business indicates not belonging to the "right" political class.
The mechanism for achieving the goal of this election is relatively simple. Everything must always be consistently distinguished as good (right) or bad (wrong), and the principle must be strictly implemented on the part of the state - everything for our own people, nothing for strangers. In the media environment, this means that funding for a wide range of projects is widely given by the Society Integration Foundation (SIF) to publications loyal to the government, while nothing is allocated for media that are not loyal to the government. Even if the project proposed for financial support is absolutely non-political and clearly humanitarian.
Another example. The President of the Latvian Medical Association (LMA), Ilze Aizsilniece, has just published an open letter to Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš and President Egils Levits, in which she expressed reasoned objections to the mandatory wearing of so-called protective masks for children during school hours. Pēteris Apinis, the former head of the LMA, also fully agreed with her vision, despite his unfriendly relationship with Aizsilniece. However, this case also quickly turned into a ritual of kissing the pope's ring, or a sign of loyalty, when doctors and hospital managers were forced to hastily confirm that they did not agree with Aizsilniece. Namely, they are on the same side as the government and the Minister of Health. Such a declaration of loyalty is understandable, because just as money is distributed to the media according to their loyalty, so it is with medical institutions. If you want to receive funding, better hurry to confirm that Aizsilniece is a fool, but Pavļuts is smart. Just like in the famous Russian saying - If I'm the boss - you're a fool. If you're the boss - I'm a fool.
Since the public media have mastered this "wisdom" perfectly, then until the election and long after it, political life will be covered according to the old Soviet-era patterns - overall everything is good and even very good, but if there are any shortcomings, then those are some exceptions for which the perpetrators will be severely punished. We will see on the screens and hear on the air the ruling politicians, who will explain in well-trained voices how much they care about the people and how hard they work to ensure that everything we see around us is taken care of.
But let's be objective. What's on the other side? Gobzems, Šlesers, Ždanoka, Harmony, various non-party MPs, KPV, which has changed the name of the party countless times. If this is the opposition, then Pavļuts, Kariņš and the rest of the current mass of leaders can do whatever they want, however they want. Against the background of the political hooligan Gobzems & Co, Kariņš and Pavļuts look to the politically inactive voter (which is about 70% - 80% of all), if not as gods, then at least as normal people. Wait a minute, but why have you forgotten ZZS, a nitpicky reader might ask, who is unequivocally convinced that each article by Neatkarīgā is first reviewed by ZZS leaders Tavars and Krauze, and then taken to prison for Lembergs' final approval.
Here we have finally reached the promised results of the 14th Saeima elections held on October 1, 2022. These are: Unity + Development/For! (with or without The Progressives) = 20-25%; NA = 10-15%; JKP = 0 (if <5%)-10%; ZZS + LRA = 15-20%. All together 55-65%. The exact distribution of percentage does not matter this time, just as it does not matter at all how many seats the others will get, because no matter how many seats Gobzems, Šlesers, the Latvian Russian Union, Harmony or another "non-system" party get, they will not be accepted in the coalition. Therefore, it does not matter which of these parties will overcome the 5% barrier and which will not, because the coalition will be formed by the same Kariņš together with Pavļuts, Dzintars and the conditional Kučinskis from ZZS.
What is meant by conditional Kučinskis in this case? This means a ZZS politician who will be ready to play by the rules mentioned in the previous article and not jump out of the ensemble with his own special solo party. For example, as NA leaders and even the “unruly” Jānis Iesalnieks have learned perfectly over the years.
Whether JKP will be included in this coalition depends on the extent to which the party will be needed by the coalition to secure a stable majority, as well as the number of seats it has won, the people elected and the party's own behavior.
Throughout the next year, until the election itself, the outcome of which is already mostly known, the ruling coalition and their information services (social media and various Re:Baltica, TVNET and similar structures) will scare the public with the possible rise of Gobzems and Šlesers to power. But can any of these scare-mongers show rationally or, as they now say, with science-based arguments, with the percentage of votes and the numbers of mandates obtained, in what composition these characters could come to power? Does anyone really think that the "untouchables" - Harmony, LKS, Šlesers and Gobzems can together get more than 50 seats in the Saeima?
You have forgotten ZZS again, at this moment someone obsessed with Lembergs and ZZS might shout. Answer: If the conditional "golden card" is ZZS, then it is quite clear that politicians of this force would much rather enter into a coalition with the "normal" Kariņš, Dzintars and Pavļuts (it is not worth taking all the circus with Pavļuts' resignation request seriously) then with the "untouchables" that would drag down the ratings. So in this case, too, it would be easier for Gobzems to fly to the Moon than to become a prime minister or minister.
Of course, all of the above will be valid, unless one of the political "chess players" will manage to put the queen under attack or get a checkmate in one turn. However, if there is such a fatal mistake, then the politicians who will allow it will be able to blame only themselves, not me, for promising them a place in the next government, but then they are left empty-handed.
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